In the event of disrupted international trade, weakened household spending, layoffs and drop in crude price, the ministry projected that Indonesia’s economic growth would still be able to reach above 4 percent this year, Sri Mulyani said.
However, if the problems worsen, the COVID-19 outbreak lasts more than six months, international trade falls by 30 percent and the aviation industry faces a shock drop of 75 percent, economic growth could reach as low as 2.5 percent or even 0 percent, she added.
The minister hoped that there will be vaccine and antiviral for the disease, saying that if the finding can be done quickly, the economic impacts will surely be shorter.
Indonesia’s economy grew 5.02 percent last year, slower than 5.17 percent recorded in 2018 as investment and exports dropped.
Sri Mulyani projected on March 18 that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth would weaken to between 4.5 percent and 4.9 percent in the first quarter, with a possibility of plunging further in the second quarter as economic activity weakened due to the novel coronavirus outbreak.